Tom Venuto seems to be one of the sane voices in the weight loss/diet/nutrition world. I'm going with what he says in this post.
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Therefore, “focus on the deficit” more accurately states the most important key to weight loss than “exercise more and eat less.” Make sure you understand this distinction and then follow this advice.
Don’t let the simplicity of this idea fool you. This is the #1 key to your successful weight loss in 2011… and forever… Focus on the deficit